The Danger of “I Just Know!”

In October 2021, 24-year-old George Watts, Jr. died of what the hospital medical examiner ruled was “COVD-19 vaccine-related myocarditis.”  Such deaths are quite rare though the CDC admits that myocarditis can sometimes be a complication of the vaccine in young men. Two years later, the CDC is still investigating because the autopsy showed a number of other health problems not known to be related to the vaccine.  The anti-vaccine movement, however, “knows” that it was the vaccine, despite the fact that many other stories of vaccine-caused deaths, such as to Lisa Marie Presley (whose autopsy revealed she died of a bowel obstruction), have been proven wrong. In short, we’re still not sure what caused George Watts, Jr.’s death. At this point, we just don’t know.

For many people, the phrase “we don’t know” is hard to accept.  They much prefer certainty.   “Everybody knows …”, “I just know!”, “How can you not know this?” are much more frequent exclamations.  They populate public opinion on crime cases, conspiracy theories, social media posts, dinner table conversations, talk shows, cable news and opinion polls, in which “not sure” or “don’t know” is always by far the smallest segment of responders.

Those who just know can be quite attractive.  They project confidence, and confidence “sells.”  People follow pundits who make bold predictions but criticize scientists who say “we just don’t know.”  People who just know appear decisive, helping relieve uncertainty and unease that may accompany not knowing, even though research suggests that decisiveness does not necessarily lead to better decisions than taking more time to make up one’s mind.  People who just know can also relieve others from the work of thinking, a phenomenon called social loafing.

Accepting what “everybody knows” can lead to serious mistakes.  It can close off thinking, locking us in when we should be opening doors in our minds. It can foster confirmation bias, the search only for information that supports what we’re sure we know, rejecting contrary facts.  It confuses knowing with understanding.  I may know about a surge of migrants at the border and then support certain actions but I may well not understand the context (the why), what it means and the implications and tradeoffs of policy options.

Just knowing can also foster fraught relationships:  “What’s the matter with you? Why can’t you see this?”  It can lead people to join groups that agree with what they “know” and even harassment or violence.  Just ask the thousands of people being threatened by those who “just know” who won the 2020 presidential election.

Saying “I don’t know” ought to be easier than it is if for no other reason than most people detest a “know it all.”  Yet it can take courage in the face of others who demand certainty and answers, such as a seriously ill patient who wants the doctor to give a clear diagnosis when tests aren’t conclusive.  It takes a willingness to invite others with differing backgrounds and perspectives to help.   Most of all, it demands traits of patience, curiosity and humility.

One useful approach is to put what we actually do (or think we) know into a broader context. The matrix below offers a way to do so and some useful insights and questions.

This matrix first suggests that what we Know We Know (I) is a small part of the factual universe on any topic.  Acknowledging this ought to be humbling.  Even then, we have to ask whether what we know are verifiable, objective facts or just assumptions and opinions that need to be tested.  What we Know We Don’t Know (II) is a welcome admission of our ignorance.  It should lead to asking how we’ll fill in our knowledge gap on a topic.  What we Don’t Know We Know (III) suggests we may not be consciously retrieving all of our knowledge and experience and may need to slow down and/or seek help in calling more into conscious awareness. What We Don’t Know We Don’t Know (IV) is our blind spot and can only be filled with the help of others who ask us questions such as “where else should I look?” and “what am I missing?”

In time, we most likely will know what killed George Watts, Jr.  Insistence that we just know things that cannot yet be known leads us down the proverbial rabbit hole, which can be confusing and dangerous.  As Nobel theoretical physicist Richard Feynman observed: "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself -and you are the easiest person to fool."  “I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing,” he also said, “I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong … In order to make progress, one must leave the door to the unknown ajar.”

Photo Credit: Album Cover of the Rock Group "No Doubt” - courtesy or commons.wikimedia.org