Are the "Experts" Really Expert?
To answer why he hadn’t shared his thoughts on the Russian war against Ukraine, Washington Post columnist Jamelle Bouie recently offered a refreshing response. Acknowledging he had followed the news and had opinions, he told his readers:
“But I’m also not an expert. . . . So I’ve made a considered decision to not comment on this subject.”
In contrast, the Internet and social media are filled with the commentary of non-experts, many with wide followings seeking to shape public opinion. Presumed experts speak confidently and millions accept and share their “wisdom.”
Marie Yovanovich, a career Foreign Service Officer, does qualify as a true expert on Ukraine and Russia. She was our Ambassador to Ukraine from 2016-2019. She speaks Russian, has a Masters Degree in history and Russian studies from Princeton and served as Deputy Director of the State Department’s Russia Desk. She also served in our Moscow Embassy and was Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv. True experts are people who are highly educated in their field, have wide experience and are recognized by respected peers.
Tucker Carlson, a media commentator since 2000 (CNN, PBS, MSNBC, Fox News), does not qualify as an expert on Ukraine. With a B.A. in history, he predicted that Russia would not invade. He has wide experience in broadcasting but little education and experience on Ukraine and Russia.
The track record of the predictions of “experts” is not stellar. In a study of 82,631 predictions made by 284 “experts” on political and economic trends, University of Pennsylvania professor Phil Tetlock found their performance was no better than chance. Those with more media appearances did worse than those with fewer, presumably because you get to be a talking head by confidently sticking your neck out. True experts, on the other hand, offer insight but rarely make predictions.
So why do we listen to presumed experts? One reason: they’re very confident and overconfidence “sells.” Few people listen to someone who isn’t confident. Research suggests that overconfident people are rated higher and under-confident people are rated lower, regardless of their actual capabilities. We (and they) may also overestimate their skill and underestimate the importance of luck in any success they have. We may also never cycle back to see how successful they really were.
People the media anoint as experts often assume the mantle of authority figures in our thinking. Psychological research shows we’re prone to trust “authorities.” Cable news and talk shows are rife with “experts” who opine on all kinds of issues. The more animated - and sometimes the more their “expert” advice fits with viewers’ political ideology - the more they get invited back and the higher their audience appeal. Elected officials, for their part, have a built-in believability quotient among followers. Yet success in seeking office may be unrelated to their knowledge of a specific issue.
Another cautionary note is that an authority on one issue may have no expertise on another. Jamelle Bouie knows where his expertise lies – and where it does not.
Sometimes we grant “authority” status to what appears on websites without asking what expertise lies behind that information. Years ago, AskMe.com offered users the chance to ask questions and get free advice. Marcus Arnold began dispensing legal advice on the site and was eventually rated tenth by users of the 150 people doing so. When users began asking for his contact information and fee structure, Arnold revealed he was a 15-year-old high school student with no legal training.
If someone speaks from presumed expertise, you can check that person out:
Put the “expert’s” name in a search engine and/or Wikipedia.org and review their education, experience, publications, track record and recognition/awards (which reflects the judgment of their peers).
Find out who funds the expert and ask if that organization has a commercial or ideological “ax” to grind.
If you need to find an expert:
Put the topic on which you need expertise in a search engine and/or in GoogleScholar (focused on academic research) and see who is publishing on it. Be aware that names that are first on a search may be those who’ve paid to be listed first.
Search the professional association(s) in the field to find an expert and/or see if a purported expert is a member, has published in their journal(s) or spoken at their conferences.
In our private capacities, it would be nice but isn’t essential to base opinions on expertise as that takes some work. Yet when we enter the public sphere by sharing information or seeking to shape policy, it’s important for citizens in a democracy to be more careful. That’s what Mr. Bouie is doing on Ukraine:
“I have found it much more fruitful to listen to others who do hold relevant expertise. . . . If I don’t know, then I won’t write. And if you’ve noticed that I haven’t commented on something important in the news, you can readily assume that I’m either uninterested in the subject or more interested in learning and listening than I am in speaking.”
Photo Credit: gayatri malhotra@unsplash.com
