Danger Ahead: When Optimism Leads to Overconfidence

Donald Trump and Howard Schultz are in many ways polar opposites, but being human they share the trait of optimism. Despite the overwhelming view of his intelligence chiefs, the president believes we have defeated ISIS and no longer face a nuclear threat from North Korea.  Despite the historical failure of candidates running as Independents , Schultz believes he can become president. 

Optimism is not a fault.  Indeed, optimism, as University College London researcher Tali Sharot says in her book, The Optimism Bias, is hard-wired in our brains and essential:

"The optimism bias protects us from accurately perceiving the pain and difficulties the future undoubtedly holds, and it may defend us from viewing our options in life as somewhat limited. As a result, stress and anxiety are reduced, physical and mental health are improved, and the motivation to act and be productive is enhanced."

Without optimism, life would be dreary.  Optimism, she notes, is at the heart of the self-fulfilling prophecy: what we believe we can accomplish, we try - and sometimes achieve.

In our personal affairs, optimism abounds. Marriage - and remarriage - are the products of not just love but hope. Optimism also shows up in lighter moments.  Playing the lottery, with odds approaching 300 million to one, is nothing if not a poster child for optimism.

But optimism needs limits.  Gambling with money you can't afford to lose moves beyond optimism to overconfidence.  Buying homes to flip proved disastrous when the bubble burst.  NASA, having never lost a vehicle in space, was too optimistic it could launch the Challenger space shuttle despite cold weather that threatened success. Its overconfidence resulted in disaster 73 seconds after liftoff.  The George W. Bush Administration was so optimistic it would win the Iraq War in a "cakewalk" that it failed to see that overconfidence would launch a war whose unintended consequences are still reverberating throughout the Middle East.

When we have crossed the line between optimism and overconfidence can be hard to see, although we seem to see it better in others.  Being very confident feeds the ego.  It's certainly more desirable than being depressed.  It can also gain followers - as political candidates know.  Research suggests that those who are overconfident actually appear smarter to others. 

We're prone to become overconfident when we attribute too much of our success to skill, forgetting the part luck plays.  Our overconfidence can defy facts and statistics.  Eighty percent of drivers rate themselves in the top 30 percent of all drivers. Men give higher estimates of their IQs than women though their IQs, on average, are no different.  Eighty-five percent of people in one study ranked themselves in the top 50th percentile for the ability to get along well with others. 

But human nature need not be destiny.  We can put a stop sign on the road to overconfidence:

• Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman argues for getting an "outside view" as an antidote to focusing only on our rosy "inside view" - what we tell ourselv es.  Next time you are convinced that kitchen remodel won't cost very much, get an "outside view" from people who've actually paid the bills for one.

• Use a devil's advocate.  This need not be an expert, just someone who is willing to ask you hard questions to test your thinking. 

• Keep in "inquiry" mode.  Once we become overconfident, we stop gathering information to test our reasoning. Instead, we become advocates for what we want to do.  Once you're an advocate, it's about winning, not wondering.

• Do a "pre-mortem." Described by psychologist Gary Klein, a pre-mortem asks: if what I've decided to do fails miserably, what will have been the reasons?  Working back from failure forces us to question assumptions guiding us, assumptions that in the glow of optimism go unchallenged.

• Do a "predictions" test: "If I am correct, what will I see in the next few days, 3 weeks, 6 months, a year?"  Then, track what happens.  A disconnect should temper overconfidence. An analysis by political scientist Phil Tetlock (Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It?  How Can We Know?) found that in nearly 83,000 predictions made by 284 economic and political "experts," they did no better than crude extrapolation algorithms.  This should have chastened them, assuming they checked on how their predictions played out.

Helen Keller said: "Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement.  Nothing can be done without hope and confidence."  We owe our greatest achievements to optimism and confidence.  But we have suffered some of our worst tragedies from unfounded overconfidence.  We need  to make sure we don't cross the line that divides them.

Photo Credit: Carol Donsky Newell